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Mar 05, 2013

Indian Monsoon Predictions Accurate


The Indian Meteorological Department has not been repeatedly wrong in its prediction of the monsoon During the last 25 years (1988-2012), long range seasonal monsoon rainfall forecasts of the Government for the country as a whole were found to be accurate (within the error bar of ±4%) in 12 years (48% of cases) and partially correct (within the error bar of ±8%) in another 5 years (20% cases). Therefore, monsoon forecasts have either been accurate or partially correct in 17 years or 68% of cases. Only in 32% of cases, the forecast error was more than 8%.

On the other hand, accuracy of short range (up to 3-days in advance) monsoon forecasts is found to be of the order of 70-95%. The skill of district level rainfall is 75-85% in monsoon season and more than 85% in non-monsoon seasons. By duly considering the difficulties involved in monsoon prediction, the above success rate may be considered as very encouraging.

The National Monsoon Mission (NMM) is already launched.

Through NMM, all efforts to set up a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) including improved predictions of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) have been launched.

Union Minister of Science & Technology and Earth Sciences S.Jaipal Reddy gave this information in reply to a written question in the Rajya Sabha today.